The rules

A tournament is a fixed set of events running over about four weeks. Entry is free and open to anyone with an account. A tournament's own score, multiplier and standing do not carry into the next tournament. Calls you made still count on the standings when those events resolve — Best predictor and Most winnings on each tournament, and the daily, monthly and yearly boards across every call.

To enter, lock in a call. Saving an open event from Scroll enters you into that tournament automatically — THE CALL, the event that scores ×2, is the first event you save. You can also enter from the tournament page by submitting a probability on every open event plus THE CALL. A slate is per player — you have one set of probabilities per tournament, and it is the one that scores.

Every probability can be revised as often as you like until the event it belongs to locks. THE CALL is locked with your first save. The last value you save before the lock is the one that scores. Sliders you never touch on the tournament page submit at 50%.

Each resolved event pays 100 × (1 − (p − o)²), where p is your probability of YES as a fraction and o is the outcome, 1 for YES and 0 for NO. This is the Brier score expressed as points. Your total is the sum over every resolved event, with THE CALL counted twice.

100% and right — 100 points

The maximum. Full conviction, correctly placed.

100% and wrong — 0 points

The floor. Nothing goes negative; certainty simply pays nothing when it fails.

50% — 75 points, either way

The fence. Sitting it is not free: it caps you at 75 on an event others can take 90+ from.

75% and right — 93.75 points; 75% and wrong — 43.75

The shape of every honest number: leaning correctly earns a little, leaning wrongly costs a lot more.

The rule is proper: your expected points are maximised by reporting the probability you actually believe. Shading toward the fence to be safe, or away from it to look bold, both lose points on average. Every event carries equal weight except THE CALL.

Events are never scored against the crowd. There is no bonus for disagreeing with the field and no penalty for agreeing with it — a bonus of that kind is arithmetically rank-inert, producing the same order as leaving it out, so it does not exist here.

Exactly one event on your slate is THE CALL and scores double. It is mandatory: a slate cannot be submitted without one. It locks when you first submit, together with your answers, and it is shared across everything you hold in that tournament.

Doubling raises the stakes in both directions, so the Call is worth most on the event you are most confident about, and its value does not depend on what anyone else said.

THE CALL moves in one circumstance only. If the event you Called is voided while it is still open, you are notified and re-designate among the events that are still open. If it is voided after it has locked, re-picking is closed — hindsight would turn the Call into a free option — and your CALL bonus instead pays your own mean score across the tournament's resolved events. That is neutral by design: it neither rewards nor punishes you for something outside your control.

Standings update as events resolve. Every board has two rankings: Best predictor (Brier points, THE CALL excluded) and Most winnings (the same points with THE CALL counted twice — the ranking a prize pool would split, shown as points while there is no cash on the board). Players on the same total share a rank, and the next rank down skips accordingly — two players tied first are both 1st and the next is 3rd.

A slate that is missing a probability for an event that has already resolved cannot be scored against slates that answered it, so it is listed as incomplete and left unranked rather than ranked on a partial total. This is what happens if you enter after the first resolution. Ranking a short slate on its average would let someone who answered only a small fraction of the events finish top-ten on variance alone, which is why it is not done. A fairer treatment of late entry — crediting missed events at the field's mean score — is designed and not yet built.

A tournament's standings are final once the last event's dispute window has closed. Rows affected by an open dispute are marked provisional until then.

Separate from each tournament's board, Leaderboard also ranks every call across every tournament on a daily, monthly and yearly board, with a Tournaments tab for the per-slate dual ranking. Period boards sum Brier points on events that resolved in that Australia/Sydney calendar window. A missing event is skipped, not incomplete — unlike a tournament board, which cannot rank a slate that missed a resolved event. THE CALL doubles on Most winnings only when the Called event itself resolved in that window; Best predictor ignores it.

Almost every argument about a result is really an argument about the question, so the defence sits at authoring. Before an event opens it must carry all four of:

1. A binary question with a precise threshold. "Will the RBA cash rate be above 3.85% after the September decision?" — never "Will the RBA turn hawkish?".
2. A named primary source, plus a backup. Committed in the question detail before anyone can answer it, shown as a citation of that source — from Polymarket, from Kalshi, or the official record — not a live price, not a link to trade elsewhere, and not an affiliation.
3. A resolution date, and phrasing that time itself can settle. Date-bounded questions cannot fail to resolve: if it has not happened by the date, the answer is NO.
4. An edge-case note wherever one is possible — what a postponement, a revision or a tie does — written when nobody yet has a stake in the answer.

An event that cannot meet all four is not ready to open.

Leaderboard is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or a partner of Kalshi or Polymarket. Those names appear only as citations of a public market we may pin as a source. We do not operate an exchange, take or match orders, or send you there to trade.

Open

Visible and answerable. Set and revise your probability freely.

Locked

Predictions frozen for that event, just before its resolution window opens. Locking is per event, on each event's own clock — never once for the whole tournament. The field's distribution and average become visible at this point, and not before.

Resolved

The outcome is recorded YES or NO from the pre-committed source, with a timestamp and a snapshot of the source as it was read. Points flow from here.

Voided

Removed from scoring for everyone, with a written reason. Terminal — a voided event is never un-voided. If the question becomes askable again it re-opens as a new event in a later tournament.

Extensions. An event that has not resolved by its expected date may be extended once, to a date no later than the tournament's final resolution date, and the extension is logged like a resolution. At that final date anything still unresolved is forced: date-bounded questions resolve NO, and anything that cannot be read that way is voided. There is no carrying an event into the next tournament.

An event is voided when, and only when, one of four things is true:

• Ambiguity — the outcome is genuinely ambiguous under the question as written.
• Premise collapse — what the question depends on does not happen: the summit is called off, the election is postponed beyond the tournament.
• Source failure — the primary source is unavailable or silent and so is the pre-committed backup.
• Force majeure — resolving in good faith is impossible, for instance amid an information blackout where nothing credible can be verified.

What is never grounds: an outcome being surprising, unpopular, bad for the standings, or resolved by a source players dislike. The pre-committed source is the contract.

A voided event contributes nothing to anyone's total and the tournament's maximum drops accordingly. No compensation points are issued, with the single exception of a voided CALL above. Every void carries its reason in the public resolution log.

A 48-hour dispute window follows each resolution. Within it, a resolution can be corrected or voided, each with a logged reason, and affected standings rows are marked provisional. To raise one, write to theworldleaderboard@gmail.com with the event and what the pre-committed source says.

After the window closes the resolution is immutable. Later revisions by the source — a restated statistic, a recount — do not reopen it: the question resolves against the source as of resolution time. Where revisions are plausible, the question should say so when it is written.

Every resolution, correction, extension and void appears in the tournament's public resolution log. Resolutions are recorded from each event's pre-committed source — which may cite a named public prediction market — and the Leaderboard team still owns the 48-hour dispute window. The log is what makes that checkable rather than something you have to take on trust.

One account per person. Running several accounts to occupy more of the standings, or coordinating accounts you control, voids the results involved.

Discussion under an event is for reading the question better. Abuse, harassment, spam and anything unlawful get removed, and repeat offenders lose posting access. Comments can be reported by any signed-in player; removals are reversible where they turn out to be wrong, and the full standard is in the terms of service.

Automated access — scripted entry, scraping the site for slates — is not allowed. Nor is attempting to interfere with a resolution source in order to move an outcome, which is listed here for completeness rather than because we expect it.